How confident?

So the new reports indicate that Iran stopped nuclear weapon development technology in 2003. All eyes are now focussed on the Intelligence Analysts in CIA to substantiate the 180 degree flip in the results of their analysis. After having just made a huge boo-boo (read Iraq), the CIA is just as nervous about the report as a newly wedded bride.
Even two weeks ago, I heard on the radio that US was pressing the UN to issue sanctions against Iran. Words as strong as 'avoid WWIII' (gosh, it is scary even to write this out), 'axis of evil' were used.
Well, now that the CIA turns around and say ' hey, Iran isn't immediate trouble', I wonder how US is going to react. Of course, there wasn't any mistake, right? Be aware, reports state that CIA was moderately confident (as opposed to strongly confident?) that Iran was enriching uranium for development of nuclear war heads (for violent purposes). And now, they are firmly confident that the enrichment has stopped in 2003, but cannot be firmly confident that the activities wouldn't begin again. I can see a smug on your face by now.
This is the same CIA whose reports triggered an extremely serious decisions - the Iraq war. There are other views that that CIA was under pressure to 'make their reports' support the current administration which already murmured about attacking Iraq.
It makes me wonder several things. No matter how much pressure was mounted on the analysts, wouldn't the chiefs/heads just close their eyes and imagine the chaos in the lives of civilians due to the war? What about the implications on the economy? The war is costing (optimistic estimate) more than $2 trillion (with a 'T'!), the huge elephant(that is being ignored)- veteran's health insurance and care, separated and changed forever families, just to name a few. How could one sleep after having caused such a big change in the world? But seems like they learnt from the past. Reports on the radio/tv/internet, indicate that the CIA employed 'new' techniques during analysis of the data. Specific highlight seems to be on the employment of this group to play the Devil's advocate. Forgive me here, I have someone playing that role for decisions as small as changing my hair style! Are you just telling me that this wasn't used while considering invading Iraq? Has human life become such a commodity that has value lesser than a new hair cut? I couldn't help but wonder.
So, does this mean that US invaded Iraq as the intelligence reports were 'firmly confident' but in case of Iran, they are only 'moderately confident' and hence would wait?
Well, of course, Word -play? Are we gauging the level of confidence with a confidence-o-meter?